The state's fall foliage forecast went out this week, into a New Jersey where the drought warning is in its tenth month. The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection says water supply indicators are improving; the U.S. Geological Survey is logging record-low groundwater in the southern counties.
The forecasters call for an ordinary season; the next four weeks will test it against the drought.
The drought warning is in its tenth month
The DEP issued a drought warning on December 5, 2025, by administrative order, with the state on drought watch since October 1, 2025. The state has not declared a drought emergency; the last statewide one ran from March 2002 to January 2003.
"New Jersey is experiencing a chronic water supply drought, the scale of which we haven't seen in more than twenty years," State Geologist Steven Domber said in the department's May 5 release. Gov. Mikie Sherrill, in the same release, pointed to "nearly two years of below-normal precipitation"; the release counted "eight consecutive months of below-normal rainfall" as of May and 20 of the previous 24 months below normal. "Precipitation across New Jersey has been below normal for approximately 75% of the last 24 months," State Climatologist David Robinson said in the same release.
The U.S. Drought Monitor had all of New Jersey in moderate drought or worse on June 2, with half the state in severe or extreme drought. On June 30, 58 percent of the state was in severe or extreme drought, nearly 10 percent of it extreme.
The turn came in July, when storms statewide dropped 6.43 inches of rain, the first above-average month since July 2025, and flash flooding hit places from Hammonton to River Edge. "The rain was welcome from a drought perspective," John Krasting wrote in the July recap; much of the improvement came in the Highlands and the Delaware River valley in the southwest. August kept it going, with 7.36 inches of rain statewide, the 13th-wettest August on record and the first back-to-back above-average months since March and April 2024. By the September 1 map, 54 percent of New Jersey was at no drought classification and 15 percent in moderate drought, with none of the state worse than moderate.
The recovery has not reached the whole state. Abnormal dryness expanded across southern New Jersey earlier this month even as it contracted across much of the rest of the region. The department's September 21 indicator table has unconfined groundwater in the Coastal South region in the "extremely dry" band for 22 weeks. The Northeast Regional Climate Center's September 24 update reports record-low groundwater in several areas including the southern counties and much-below-normal streamflow in east-central New Jersey as of September 22. The drought map released that day puts 73 percent of the state at no drought classification, with 8 percent in moderate drought.
The September 23 weekly update put the week's rainfall at 0 to 4.4 inches statewide, averaging 0.71 inches. "However, the past two years of dry weather, particularly in southern New Jersey are still impacting streamflow and groundwater levels," the department wrote. New Jersey American Water's statewide mandatory conservation notice, issued December 5 when the warning was declared, was still in effect as of the company's May 20 statement.
The forecasts point to an ordinary season, with one risk named
Jim Salge, the fall foliage reporter for Yankee Magazine, wrote in August that New England looks spectacular this fall. His early call: "A slow start could set the stage for a long, spectacular foliage season." For the Mid-Atlantic and New York, where a hot summer stressed the forests, he expects "a mixed foliage season, with the best colors most likely in places where summer moisture has been consistent," Salge wrote. In Salge's read, the drought cuts both ways on the coast: it could condense the colors - or make them more intense.
Salge told ABC the turn from last year is the point: "Last year, the trees went to bed thirsty." After a winter of slow snowmelt, "we have really nice, healthy forests now."
Brian Lada of AccuWeather reads the season as on schedule for the Northeast. In the forecast USA Today published on September 12, Lada wrote that "where trees are already stressed, they may shed their leaves earlier than normal, including areas from Georgia to New Jersey and across much of the Rockies." The same forecast carries the late-season caveat that a tropical system could still strip leaves ahead of peak. The best color nationally should run from the Great Lakes and upper Midwest across northern Pennsylvania and northern New York into northern New England, the areas that escaped the worst of the summer drought, said Alex DaSilva of AccuWeather.
"The Northeast is actually shaping up to have a really great season this year, and that's coming on the tail of a couple of rough fall foliage years," Evan Fisher of Explore Fall told WABC this week. The ABC7 report also notes drought recovery across the Northeast.
The federal Climate Prediction Center's latest seasonal outlook shows drought in the Northeast has shrunk to a few small areas, southeastern New Jersey among them, and forecasts improvement or removal for all existing drought areas in the region. The center's October-through-December outlook leans toward wetter-than-normal conditions for most of New Jersey.
For all the drought, none of the forecasters is calling a bad season. The one warning that singles out New Jersey is Lada's: trees under drought stress may shed their leaves early.
Peak color runs north to south from early October into November
The DEP's September 22 forecast, posted to the department's official account on X, expects "peak fall foliage" during three windows statewide: in Bergen, Hunterdon, Morris, Passaic, Sussex and Warren counties in early to mid-October, across the mid-state in mid-October, and down the Shore and in the southern counties in mid-to-late October.
NJ.com's tracker shows patchy color in Sussex and Warren counties and minimal color across the northern and central counties as of Tuesday, September 22. The tracker projects peak around October 17 in the northwest and around November 7 in Cumberland County, a roughly three-week spread between the first counties to turn and the last.
Weekly foliage condition updates go out on the department's social media accounts. The U.S. Drought Monitor's citizen-observer tool takes condition reports from the public.
A coastal storm is forecast to bring heavy rain to New Jersey from Friday night through Sunday, per the Northeast Regional Climate Center's September 24 update. The DEP's next weekly drought update lands September 30.
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Sources
• U.S. Drought Monitor / National Drought Mitigation Center, "U.S. Drought Monitor Weekly Maps: New Jersey," University of Nebraska-Lincoln (weekly maps, May 26-September 22, 2026)
• NJ Department of Environmental Protection, "Sherrill Administration Urges Public to Continue Voluntarily Conserving Water as Drought Conditions Persist," NJ DEP (May 5, 2026)
• U.S. Geological Survey, "Real-Time Water Data for New Jersey," U.S. Geological Survey (accessed September 25, 2026)
• Northeast Regional Climate Center, "Northeast Drought Update," Northeast Regional Climate Center (September 24, 2026)
• John Krasting, "July 2026 Recap: Summertime Sizzler Gives Way to Flooding Downpours," Rutgers University Climate Office (August 7, 2026)
• John Krasting, "August 2026 Recap," Rutgers University Climate Office (September 8, 2026)
• Jim Salge, "2026 New England Fall Foliage Forecast: A Slow Start Could Mean a Longer Season," Yankee Magazine (August 19, 2026)
• WABC/ABC7, "Fall Foliage 2026: Where to See Peak Autumn Colors in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut," ABC7 (September 23, 2026)
• USA Today, "Maps Show 2026 Fall Foliage Predictions: When Will Colors Peak?" USA Today (September 12, 2026)
• NJ.com, "N.J.’s Fall Foliage Season Is Starting: Here’s When Your County Will Hit Peak Leaf Colors," NJ.com (September 22, 2026)
• New Jersey American Water, "New Jersey American Water Issues Statewide Mandatory Conservation Notice," New Jersey American Water (December 5, 2025; company statement May 20, 2026)
• Climate Prediction Center, "Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion (valid October-December)," Climate Prediction Center (September 17, 2026)
Photo: National Park Service