MOUNT HOLLY, N.J. — By 6:11 AM on May 5, the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly issued a Special Weather Statement that warned of elevated wildfire risk across the lower half of New Jersey. Southwest winds gusted toward 30 miles per hour, while relative humidity dropped toward 25 to 30 percent. Temperatures climbed into the 80s. The statement strongly discouraged outdoor burning.

By early afternoon, the numbers hardened. NJ Forest Fire Service Section B10, which covers Middlesex and Monmouth counties, logged Class 4 "Very High" fire danger. Fine fuel moisture, which measures the dampness of grass, leaves and pine needles, registered 4.5 percent. At that level those surface fuels hold almost no moisture. No rain fell in the section in the previous 24 hours. Wind gusts hit 31 miles per hour and relative humidity registered 32 percent.

At least one verified burn took place in the zone covered by the warning, before the NWS had even issued it. Around 3 AM on Tuesday, a six-acre brush fire broke out in Hamilton Township, Atlantic County, near McCall Avenue and Jackson Road. It spread through dry brush before fire crews contained it; NJFFS Section B10 classified the fire as non-sizable. The containment demonstrates that the alert system functioned as designed: the fire was detected, classified and suppressed before it grew. But the event demonstrates that red flag conditions can arrive before the formal warning catches up.

The Veterans Tower, a 133-foot fire watchtower in Jackson Township, opened March 25. It is the first new fire tower in New Jersey in 78 years, replacing the former Lakewood Fire Tower that stood approximately 5 miles east. The new tower covers Ocean and Monmouth counties, protecting 516,000 residents and 200,000 homes. NJFFS has not yet published information on whether the tower detected smoke early, or how its spotters performed under Class 4 conditions.

The NWS's warning arrived over ground that has been drying out for more than two years. Also on May 5, the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection urged continued voluntary conservation, under a drought warning that has applied across all 21 counties since December 2025. State Climatologist David Robinson said that precipitation has run below normal for roughly 75 percent of the last 24 months. January through March 2026 ranked as the 13th driest such period on record since 1895. Rain during the weekend of April 25 and 26 provided a needed respite but long-term dry weather persists even with occasional rainy days.

Controlled burn crews treated only about 8,600 acres this spring against a normal target of 20,000 to 25,000. Snow cover and drought kept crews off the landscape. The 2024 prescribed burn total was about 4,000 acres, the lowest in 25 years. NJ Forest Fire Service has counted more than 200 wildfires since January. State Fire Warden Bill Donnelly told NJ.com on April 8 the agency is ready but warned residents not to let their guard down.

A 2025 Climate Central analysis found annual wildfire weather days increased over the past 50 years by 11 days in northern New Jersey and five days in the southern part. The National Interagency Fire Center's June 1 outlook, published May 1, warns that lack of snowpack, low groundwater and the spring dip in pine needle live fuel moistures could produce earlier-than-normal starts in the Eastern Area.

Three Type 4 fire engines, one pickup and nine wildland firefighters were sent to Georgia on April 24 to assist with massive wildfires in that state. Section B10 states the deployment has no impact on New Jersey readiness. The National Interagency Fire Center's May 4 report lists nine incidents, 6,046 acres, four crews, 14 engines and 89 personnel for the Eastern Area, which includes New Jersey.

While the wildfire warning covered only the lower half of the state, a structural fire to the north showed what wind and dry conditions do to infrastructure. The Belleville blaze, which started in a mattress warehouse around 6:30 PM on Sunday, burned into Monday under 35 to 40 mile per hour gusts that carried embers blocks away. Inadequate water pressure forced firefighters to request tanker deliveries from five towns and the United States Army. The multi-alarm fire required mutual aid from 20 departments, plus the FDNY. Bellville Mayor Michael Melham declared a state of emergency and Belleville schools were closed Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Officials have closed the Rutgers Street Bridge until further notice.

PSE&G cut power to more than 700 buildings during the wind-driven Belleville fire, including the police department and town hall. That outage was reactive, triggered by the blaze and not planned ahead of it. Whether PSE&G, JCP&L or Atlantic City Electric shut off power preemptively during red flag wildfire warnings is not publicly disclosed. FirstEnergy Corp, which owns JCP&L, referenced wildfire risk in a January 2026 president's letter as a general operational concern. None of the three utilities issued a statement specific to the May 5 warning. The state Board of Public Utilities has no published wildfire shutoff protocol.

DEP maintained a drought warning statewide as of May 5. NJFFS Section B10 lists no active burn restrictions. DEP and NJFFS have not coordinated on whether the drought warning triggers burn restrictions. NJDEP's prescribed burn policy warns that violators face fines up to $5,000 and permit revocation.

A recent comment letter from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners warns that proprietary wildfire catastrophe models may replace transparent community-based ratings. Verisk and ISO submitted the letter on April 24, stating that its Public Protection Classification system was never designed for wildfire risk. Research from the Rutgers Bloustein School shows that insurers already reduce New Jersey homeowner coverage due to climate risks.

The last major fire in the warning zone was the April 2025 Jones Road blaze, which burned 15,000 acres in Ocean County, forced 7,000 evacuations and shut down the Garden State Parkway. It was the state's worst wildfire since at least 2012.

By 7 PM on Tuesday, the wind warning had expired. The drought warning had not. The rain forecast for Wednesday and Thursday will bring some relief, but only for a time. NJFFS says it is ready. The next red flag warning, amid favorable conditions and unspent fuel, will put that to the test.

Related Articles

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• Wildfire Rages in Ocean County. Evacuations Ordered

• Trenton Raises Water Rates as Wealthy Suburbs Sue to Take the System

• NJ Governor Sherrill Joins Three Multistate Alliances on Climate, Health, and Reproductive Care

Sources

• National Weather Service Mount Holly, Special Weather Statement (May 5, 2026)

• NJ Forest Fire Service Section B10, "Current Fire Danger" daily logs (May 5, 2026, 1415 hrs)

• WPVI-TV/6abc, "Firefighters respond to brush fire in Hamilton Township, Atlantic County" (May 5, 2026)

• NJ Department of Environmental Protection, Parks and Forests / Forest Fire Service, "Sherrill Administration Dedicates New Jersey's First New Fire Tower in 78 Years" (March 25, 2026)

• Asbury Park Press, "Fire watch tower unveiled in Jackson as spring wildfire season starts" (March 26, 2026)

• NJ Department of Environmental Protection, "Sherrill Administration Urges Public to Continue Voluntarily Conserving Water as Drought Conditions Persist" (May 5, 2026)

• David Robinson, South Jersey Climate News, "Despite recent snow events, drought persists in New Jersey" (March 3, 2026)

• Rutgers University, Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist, "March 2026 Recap" (April 7, 2026)

• WPVI-TV/6abc, "Dry conditions raise concerns as New Jersey enters peak wildfire season" (April 10, 2026)

• Amanda Oglesby, NJ.com, "New Jersey's peak wildfire season underway. Officials urge caution" (April 8, 2026)

• Climate Central, cited in Asbury Park Press, "Fire watch tower unveiled in Jackson as spring wildfire season starts" (March 26, 2026)

• National Interagency Fire Center, "Incident Management Situation Report" (May 4, 2026)

• National Interagency Fire Center, monthly outlook for June 1, 2026 (May 1, 2026)

• The Observer, "Massive 12-alarm fire tears through several structures in Belleville" (May 4, 2026)

• NJ 101.5, "Massive 12-alarm fire engulfs buildings in Belleville" (May 4, 2026)

• CBS News New York, "Schools closed again after warehouse fire in Belleville" (May 5, 2026)

• FirstEnergy Corp / JCP&L, President's letter "A Look at What's Ahead" (January 29, 2026)

• NJ Department of Environmental Protection, "Prescribed Burning" policy document (2026)

• National Association of Insurance Commissioners, Verisk/ISO Comment Letter (April 24, 2026)

• Bloustein School, Rutgers University, "Andrews Explains How Climate Risks Impact Insurance in NJ" (January 13, 2025)

• FEMA, Fire Management Assistance declarations (March 2026)

• NJBIZ, "FEMA grant aids Jones Road Wildfire response" (April 28, 2025)

• The Philadelphia Inquirer, "N.J. officials anticipate an active wildfire year in 2026" (April 8, 2026)